| Strategic Forecasting, a private intelligence | | | | that they have the ability to destabilize the |
| company based in Austin, Texas, recently | | | | country, leaving the Shiites and Kurds no |
| reported that jihadist groups in Iraq are | | | | real option short of all-out civil war but to |
| attempting to create an independent region in | | | | reach an agreement that includes Sunnis in |
| Sunni-dominated areas. The jihadists | | | | the political and economic future of Iraq. |
| recognize that there is a concerted drive | | | | |
| among the Shiite and Kurdish ethnic groups in | | | | Still, the drive for a divided Iraq |
| the country for separate, autonomous regions, | | | | continues. Despite the opposition of |
| each responsible for their own security and | | | | President Bush, U.S. Senator Kay Bailey |
| each with control of their own resources. | | | | Hutchison recently called for more |
| | | | consideration of a division along ethnic |
| With the Shiites in control of southern Iraq, | | | | lines. Rumors are circulating that the Iraq |
| and with the Kurds running their own | | | | Study Group, whose members include former |
| governmental operations in northern Iraq, the | | | | Secretary of State James Baker and newly |
| prospect of a divided republic is quickly | | | | nominated Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, |
| becoming the reality on the ground. The only | | | | will recommend the division of the country |
| region remaining for the Sunnis is the area | | | | into semi-autonomous regions, with some sort |
| located just north and west of Baghdad. Of | | | | of central government in Baghdad to |
| course, this area is largely devoid of oil | | | | administer oil revenues. |
| resources and will be economically stagnant | | | | |
| as an independent region. | | | | Despite the pleas of the current Iraqi |
| | | | government's President and Prime Minister, |
| If the push for a divided Iraq succeeds, the | | | | Kurdish and Shiite lawmakers continue to push |
| Kurds will control the northern oil fields | | | | legislation for regional autonomy. And |
| while the Shiites will control the wells in | | | | despite Sunni efforts to prevent a divided |
| the south. Knowing that such an arrangement | | | | republic, the jihadists have stepped up to |
| leaves them without a revenue base, the | | | | take advantage of the stalled political |
| Sunnis will continue to use a violent | | | | process. |
| insurgency to force the Shiites and Kurds | | | | |
| into some sort of political accommodation | | | | As the violence continues to worsen, and as |
| that would guarantee Sunnis a share of Iraq's | | | | the political negotiations continue to go |
| oil-related income. The jihadists joined this | | | | nowhere, the possibility of an Iraq divided |
| fight alongside the Sunnis with the goal of | | | | into three autonomous regions seems more and |
| creating an Islamic state subject to | | | | more likely. Options are limited and time is |
| Taliban-style rule, and to take advantage of | | | | short. Pressure is mounting for the Iraqis to |
| the opportunity to wage war against the | | | | take control of their country and for the |
| United States. Now, with the increasing | | | | American-led coalition to leave. |
| likelihood of separate, autonomous regions in | | | | |
| Iraq, the jihadists are trying to ensure a | | | | Perhaps a divided Iraq is the answer to the |
| space for themselves in the only area | | | | sectarian violence that is tearing the |
| available to them. | | | | country apart. Still, the problem of revenue |
| | | | sharing will have to be dealt with. Neither |
| The Sunnis are adamantly opposed to dividing | | | | the Sunnis nor the jihadists will be happy |
| Iraq because they will inevitably be squeezed | | | | with a desolate region devoid of any real |
| out of Iraq's future. So far, the Sunni | | | | income potential. Until this reality is |
| campaign of violent extremism has forced the | | | | addressed, the violence will continue and the |
| Shiites and Kurds to recognize that the | | | | future of Iraq will remain as bleak as it is |
| minority sect that once ruled Iraq must be | | | | today. |
| reckoned with. The Sunnis have demonstrated | | | | |