| Strategic Forecasting, a private intelligence company | | | | minority sect that once ruled Iraq must be reckoned |
| based in Austin, Texas, recently reported that jihadist | | | | with. The Sunnis have demonstrated that they have |
| groups in Iraq are attempting to create an independent | | | | the ability to destabilize the country, leaving the Shiites |
| region in Sunni-dominated areas. The jihadists | | | | and Kurds no real option short of all-out civil war but to |
| recognize that there is a concerted drive among the | | | | reach an agreement that includes Sunnis in the political |
| Shiite and Kurdish ethnic groups in the country for | | | | and economic future of Iraq. |
| separate, autonomous regions, each responsible for | | | | Still, the drive for a divided Iraq continues. Despite the |
| their own security and each with control of their own | | | | opposition of President Bush, U.S. Senator Kay Bailey |
| resources. | | | | Hutchison recently called for more consideration of a |
| With the Shiites in control of southern Iraq, and with the | | | | division along ethnic lines. Rumors are circulating that |
| Kurds running their own governmental operations in | | | | the Iraq Study Group, whose members include former |
| northern Iraq, the prospect of a divided republic is | | | | Secretary of State James Baker and newly |
| quickly becoming the reality on the ground. The only | | | | nominated Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, will |
| region remaining for the Sunnis is the area located just | | | | recommend the division of the country into |
| north and west of Baghdad. Of course, this area is | | | | semi-autonomous regions, with some sort of central |
| largely devoid of oil resources and will be economically | | | | government in Baghdad to administer oil revenues. |
| stagnant as an independent region. | | | | Despite the pleas of the current Iraqi government's |
| If the push for a divided Iraq succeeds, the Kurds will | | | | President and Prime Minister, Kurdish and Shiite |
| control the northern oil fields while the Shiites will control | | | | lawmakers continue to push legislation for regional |
| the wells in the south. Knowing that such an | | | | autonomy. And despite Sunni efforts to prevent a |
| arrangement leaves them without a revenue base, the | | | | divided republic, the jihadists have stepped up to take |
| Sunnis will continue to use a violent insurgency to force | | | | advantage of the stalled political process. |
| the Shiites and Kurds into some sort of political | | | | As the violence continues to worsen, and as the |
| accommodation that would guarantee Sunnis a share | | | | political negotiations continue to go nowhere, the |
| of Iraq's oil-related income. The jihadists joined this fight | | | | possibility of an Iraq divided into three autonomous |
| alongside the Sunnis with the goal of creating an | | | | regions seems more and more likely. Options are |
| Islamic state subject to Taliban-style rule, and to take | | | | limited and time is short. Pressure is mounting for the |
| advantage of the opportunity to wage war against the | | | | Iraqis to take control of their country and for the |
| United States. Now, with the increasing likelihood of | | | | American-led coalition to leave. |
| separate, autonomous regions in Iraq, the jihadists are | | | | Perhaps a divided Iraq is the answer to the sectarian |
| trying to ensure a space for themselves in the only | | | | violence that is tearing the country apart. Still, the |
| area available to them. | | | | problem of revenue sharing will have to be dealt with. |
| The Sunnis are adamantly opposed to dividing Iraq | | | | Neither the Sunnis nor the jihadists will be happy with a |
| because they will inevitably be squeezed out of Iraq's | | | | desolate region devoid of any real income potential. |
| future. So far, the Sunni campaign of violent extremism | | | | Until this reality is addressed, the violence will continue |
| has forced the Shiites and Kurds to recognize that the | | | | and the future of Iraq will remain as bleak as it is today. |